In our most recent publication in the International Journal of Project Management, the well-known reference class forecasting technique has been combined with the traditional exponential smoothing method to improve project forecasting.
Abstract: In this paper, the earned value management (EVM) project control methodology is integrated with the exponential smoothing forecasting approach. This results in an extension of the known EVM and earned schedule (ES) cost and time forecasting formulas. A clear correspondence between the established approaches and the newly introduced method – called the XSM – is identified, which could facilitate future implementation. More specifically, only one smoothing parameter is needed to calculate the enhanced EVM performance factor. Moreover, this parameter can be dynamically adjusted during project progress based on information of past performance and/or anticipated management actions. Additionally, the reference class forecasting (RCF) technique can be incorporated into the XSM. Results from 23 real-life projects show that, for both time and cost forecasting, the XSM exhibits a considerable overall performance improvement with respect to the most accurate project forecasting methods identified by previous research, especially when incorporating the RCF concept.
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Cite as: Batselier, J. and Vanhoucke, M., 2017, "Improving project forecast accuracy by integrating earned value management with exponential smoothing and reference class forecasting", International Journal of Project Management, 35, 28–43 (doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2016.10.003).